Depression Watch (Jan.26 2009 to Jan.29)

{Dow}
(Thurs) =        8,149.01    226.44 (-)
(Wed) =                8,375.45    200.72 (+)  
(Tues) =        8,174.73    58.70 (+)     
(Mon) =                8,116.03    38.47 (+)
(Change bounds) = [38, 226] = [lower bound , upper bound] ; Difference  = 188

{VIX}
(Thurs)     =                 42.63
(Wed)    =                  39.66
(Tues)  =                   42.25
(Mon)    =                  45.69
(wk-avg;Jan.23) =  49.408
Normal   =                30 [3 +/-] {Best Fit Curve: Trig. function}

{Oil}
(Thurs)     =                $41.59  
(Wed)       =               $42.14           
(Tues)    =                $42.13
(Mon)    =                $45.89

{Dollar Index}

(Thurs)     =              85.36  
(Wed)       =              84.53           
(Tues)    =               84.40 (-)
(Mon)    =               84.60 (-)

{BLS}

Unemployment =  7.2% (Dec.08)

{Last Week}

Analyzing the date collected daily, it becomes clear, that interday predictions become very sketchy. Trends begin to appear weekly. This does not mean that sense of the interday data cannot be understood, or used for day & options trading. How you use this data will determine what you are doing in day trading. Those familiar with the VIX will know it's importance. However, those traders who don't understand the mathematics of trig. functions are now "playing the odds" - gambling. This is where the hedge, in hedge fund comes into play ; spreading the bets on the market around as to spread out the risk of losses. However, gambling is gambling - and at some point a massive loss will occur. The very descriptions of options traders, and their addiction to larger and larger profits, is the very description of a gambler's psychology (hence the VIX; a measure of volatility and fear). However, those who have a good understanding of mathematics, will see mathematic patterns that can be analyzed. Physicists, will recognize an analogy to the heisenberg uncertainty principle and chaos theory. This means that a model of interday economics can be developed, with a reasonable accuracy.

{This Week}

Now that we have a good baseline, we want to refine our model to provide a greater understanding of market momentum. As such, we have removed the S&P 500 from the above, because it's already factored into the VIX and the Dow provides a better guide for week to week (and up) modelling.

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