Depression Watch (Feb.09 2009 to Feb.12)

{Dow}
(Thurs) = 7,932.76 6.77 (-)
(Wed) = 7,939.53 50.65 (+)
(Tues) = 7,888.88 381.99 (-)
(Mon) = 8,270.87 9.72 (-)
last week's range [7,937, 8281]
last week's range (change) = [64, 218]

{VIX}
(Thurs) = 41.25 (-)
(Wed) = 44.53 (-)
(Tues) = 46.67 (+)
(Mon) = 43.64 (-)
Normal = 30 [3 +/-] {Best Fit Curve: Trig. function}
last week's wk-avg = 40.978
last week's range [40, 46]

{Oil}
(Thurs) = $34.58 (-) ;
(Wed) = $36.03 (-) ;
(Tues) = $37.84 (-) ;
(Mon) = $39.56 (-) ;
last week's range [40, 41]

{Dollar Index}

(Thurs) = 85.98 (+)
(Wed) = 85.82 (+)
(Tues) = 85.77 (+)
(Mon) = 84.91 (-)
last week's range [85, 86]

{BLS}

Unemployment = 7.6% (Jan.09)


{Last Week}

While we have removed the S&P 500, we have added the Dollar Index, reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and ranges. Ranges are the lower and upper bounds [Lower, Upper] of the various metrics listed. Movement within the range can be considered normal and not eventful, but movements outside the ranges can be considered to be signals of change.


{This Week}

In math there is only one type of number, and rounding any number reduces the accuracy. However, this is not true in physics. In physics numbers are measurements, or calculations of measurements. Here the limitations to accuracy stand beyond the control of math. Consequently, in dynamic modeling, round can actual serve to improve the accuracy of a model. For example, in our case, we need to create a container that identifies normal movement (a normal trading range). How we set the rounding of the bounds, will determine the quality of normal trading range, and allow us to separate significant movements in the market, from option plays or market manipulation.