Depression Watch (Fri. Feb. 6 2009)

{Dow Close}
(Fri Feb.6)   =        8,280.59    217.52 (+) ; the week's range [7,937, 8281] ; the difference = 344
(Fri Jan.30) =            8,000.86  ;  148.15 (-) ; the week's range [8000, 8375] ; the difference = 375
(Fri Jan.23)          =  8,077.56   45.24 (-)
(Fri Jan.16) =           8,281.22    68.73 (+)
(Fri Jan.9)     =        8,599.18    143.28 (-)

{Change Range}

(Feb.02-Feb.06) = [64, 218]
(Jan.26-Jan.30) = [64, 226]

{FFC - Friday to Friday Change}
(Fri Feb.6) =                              279.73 (+)
(Fri Jan.30) =                            76.7 (-)
(Fri Jan.23) =                            203.66 (-)
(Fri Jan.16) =                            317.96 (-)
(Fri Jan.9) =                               435.51 (-)

(4 wks) =                                1033.83 (-)
(5 wks) =                                754.1 (-)

Range (4 wks) = [77, 436] ; Difference = 359
Range (5 wks) = [77, 436] ; Difference = 359

{VIX}
(Fri Feb.6)     =                       43.37    ;  the week's range [43, 46] ; the difference = 3   
(wk-avg Feb.6)   =                  40.978    ;     3.620 (-)
(wk-avg Jan.30)   =                43.014    ;     6.394 (-)
(wk-avg Jan.23) =                  49.408    ;     2.336 (+)
(wk-avg Jan.16) =                  47.072    ;     6.468 (+)
(wk-avg Jan.9)   =                  40.604    ;     0.374 (-)

Range (4 wks) = [41, 49] ; Difference = 8
Range (5 wks) = [41, 49] ; Difference = 8

{Oil}
(Fri Feb.6) =                    $40.17 ;  the week's range [40, 41] ; the difference = 1
(Fri Jan.30) =                  $41.68 ;  the week's range [42, 46] ; the difference = 4
(Fri Jan.23) =                 $46.47
(Fri Jan.16) =                 $36.51
(Fri Jan.9) =                      $40.83
    
Range (4 wks) = [36, 46] ; Difference = 10
Range (5 wks) = [36, 46] ; Difference = 10

{Dollar Index}

(Fri Feb.6) =                  85.29 ;  the week's range [85, 86] ; the difference = 1
(Fri Jan.30) =                86.00

{Last Week}

A week into the Obama Administration, and we are at the lower bound of 8000. As well, we have had 4 weeks of week to week market declines. The question here is the market in the process of setting a new trading range. This would mean that the market is not a settled (flat) market (as suggested by economics reports on a market bottom) but transitional market, with a new range to be set. The downward momentum of the market (the change, FFC, etc.) provides a probability that the transition is downward. What we have seen over the last few weeks, was a narrowing of market range. Assuming that the maximum change of 519 occurs upward (+), then a maximum of 8500, becomes the new upper bound; and the new range [8000, 8500]

{This Week}

The new approximate range, [8000, 8500] was the adherd to with a range of [7937, 8281] ~ [8000, 8300] which is within [8000, 8500]. The difference in range can then be approximated to be [300, 400] (rounding on the 100s), or [340, 380] (rounding on the 10s). When calculating range bounds, rounding is used to create a viable numerical container. For example, 5.2 is rounded down to 5 for both the lower and upper bound; 5.5 is rounded down (to 5) for the lower bound and up (to 6) for the upper bound.

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