Depression Watch (Fri. Mar.6 2009)

{Dow Close}

(Mar.6) = 6,626.94 32.50 (+) ; the week's range [6594, 6876] ; δ = 282
(Feb.27) = 7,062.93 119.15 (-) ; the week's range [7063, 7351] ; δ = 288
(Feb.20) = 7,365.67 100.28 (-) ; the week's range [7366, 7556] ; δ = 190
(Feb.13) = 7,850.41 82.35 (-) ; the week's range [7850, 8271] ; δ = 421
(Feb.6) = 8,280.59 217.52 (+) ; the week's range [7937, 8281] ; the difference = 344

Range
--------
(4wks) = [7063, 8281]
(5wks) = [6627, 8281]

Change Range (100% = origin ; - below 100% ; + above 100%)
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [32, 300]
(Feb.23-Feb.27) = [80, 251] < 288 (-10%) ; > 190 (+30%)
(Feb.16-Feb.20) = [51, 298] > 190 (+60%) ; < 421 (-30%)
(Feb.09-Feb.13) = [7, 382] < 421 (-10%) ; > 344 (+10%)
(Feb.02-Feb.06) = [64, 218] < 344 (-40%) ; < 375 (-40%)

(5-wks) = [7, 382]
(5-wk-avg) = [53 , 275]

{FFC - Friday to Friday Change}

(Mar.6) = 435.99 (-)
(Feb.27) = 302.74 (-)
(Feb.20) = 317.96 (-)
(Feb13) = 430.18 (-)
(Feb.6) = 279.73 (+)

(4 wks) = 771.15 (-)
(5 wks) = 1207.14 (-)

wkly-avg = 353.32

Range (4 wks) = [280, 430]
Range (5 wks) = [280, 436]

{VIX}

(Mar.6) = 49.33 ; the week's range [48, 53] ; δ = 5
(Fri Feb.27) = 46.35 ; the week's range [45, 53] ; δ = 8
(Fri Feb.20) = 49.30 ; the week's range [47, 49] ; δ = 2
(Fri Feb.13) = 42.93 ; the week's range [41, 47] ; δ = 6
(Fri Feb.6) = 43.37 ; the week's range [43, 46] ; the difference = 3
(wk-avg Mar.6) = 50.128 ; 3.37 (+)
(wk-avg Feb.27) = 46.758 ; 1.617 (-)
(wk-avg Feb.20) = 48.375 ; 6.468 (+)
(wk-avg Feb.13) = 44.41 ; 0.374 (-)
(wk-avg Feb.6) = 40.978 ; 3.620 (-)

Range (4 wks) = [41, 49] ; Difference = 8
Range (5 wks) = [41, 50] ; Difference = 9

{Oil}
(Mar.6) = $45.52 ; the week's range [38, 46] ; δ = 8
(Fri Feb.27) = $44.76 ; the week's range [38, 45] ; δ = 7
(Fri Feb.20) = $38.94 ; the week's range [35, 39] ; δ = 4
(Fri Feb.13) = $37.51 ; the week's range [34, 40] ; the difference = 6
(Fri Feb.6) = $40.17 ; the week's range [40, 41] ; δ = 1

Range (4 wks) = [38, 45] ; δ = 7
Range (5 wks) = [38, 46] ; δ = 8

{Dollar Index}

(Mar.6) = 88.55 ; the week's range [87, 89] ; δ = 2
(Fri Feb.27) = 88.01 ; the week's range [87, 88] ; δ = 1
(Fri Feb.20) = 86.61 ; the week's range [87, 88] ; δ = 1
(Fri Feb.13) = 86.04 ; the week's range [85, 86] ; δ = 1
(Fri Feb.6) = 85.29 ; the week's range [85, 86] ; the difference = 1

{Baltic Dry Index}

(Mar.6) = 2225 58 (+) ; the week's range [2014, 2225] ; δ = 211
(Feb.27) = 1986 36 (+) ; the week's range [1950, 2099] ; δ = 149
(Feb.20) = 2099 42 (+) ; the week's range [1846, 2099] ; the difference = 253

Change Range
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [20, 83]
(Feb.23-Feb.27) = [10, 74] < 149 => 50% (upper bound/difference)

{BRK/A:US - Berkshire Hathaway Inc}

(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(Mar.6) = 73,195.00 795.00 (+) ; the week's range [72400, 75750] ; δ = 3350

{NI225 - Japan}

(Mar.6) = 7173.10 260.39 (-) ; the week's range [7173, 7434] ; δ = 261
(Feb.27) = 7568.42 110.49 (+); the week's range [7269, 7568] ; δ = 481
(Feb.20) = 7416.38 141.27 (-); the week's range [7416, 7750] ; the difference = 334

Change Range
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [50, 288]
(Feb.23-Feb.27) = [3, 193] < 481 => 40% (upper bound/difference)

{HK:HSI - Hong Kong}

(Mar.6) = 11,921.52 289.721 (-) ; the week's range [11922, 12331] ; δ = 409
(Feb.27) = 12,811.57 83.37 (-) ; the week's range [12790, 13175] ; δ = 385
(Feb.20) = 12,699.17 324.19 (-) ; the week's range [12699, 13456] ; the difference = 757

Change Range
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [120, 494]
(Feb.23-Feb.27) = [110, 476]

{SENSEX:IND - BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX India}

(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(Mar.6) = 8,325.82 127.90 (+) ; the week's range [8198, 8607] ; δ = 409

Change Range
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [19, 285]

{SHCOMP:IND SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE IX}

(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(Mar.6) = 2,193.007 28.069 (-) ; the week's range [2071, 2221] ; δ = 150

Change Range
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [11, 127]

{FSSTI:IND Singapore STRAITS TIMES INDEX}

(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(Mar.6) = 1,513.12 5.52 (-) ; the week's range [--, --] ; δ = --

Change Range
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [--, --]

{KOSDAQ - SKorea}

(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(Mar.6) = 365.18 3.02 (+) ; the week's range [--, --] ; δ = --

Change Range
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [--, --]

{KOSPI - SKorea}

(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(--) = --- --- (-)
(Mar.6) = 1,055.03 3.15 (-) ; the week's range [--, --] ; δ = --

Change Range
-----------------
(Mar.2-Mar.6) = [--, --]

{Last Week}

This week we will try to narrow our range ; Using the weekly average change of 281, we will round up to the nearest century (100) which is 300. Using the lower bound [7063], round down to [7000] and add [300]; then round up to [7100]
and add [300]; we have a new range of (to the nearest century) [6700, 7400]

{This Week}

While the media is screaming, daily, about the market, we here are taking a more pragmatic approach to understand, mathematically what's going on. While the market moved out of range, it ended less than 75 point outside of the 6700 range calculated last week, with a 75 negative bias on the [300] change also calculated last week. The leaves the need to create a new range. This time Using the δ of 282, we will round up to the nearest century (100) which is 300. Using the lower bound [6594], round up to [6600] and add [300] producing [6900] (the upper bound) ; then subtract [300] producing [6300]; we have a new range of (to the nearest century) [6300, 6900] . Using the δ , we can create a min and max range [190, 421] over five weeks. Taking the max (or upper bound) [421] rounding to the nearest century [400] we can create a range based on this δ . The goal here is to create a measure of market movement, the first marker is the weekly range [6594, 6876]. Then a second marker uses the week's δ [6300, 6900], and a final range of [6200, 7000] using the max (upper bound) δ.

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