Depression Watch (Fri. Feb. 27 2009)

{Dow Close}

(Fri Feb.27) =           7,062.93      119.15 (-) ; the week's range [7063, 7351] ; the difference = 288
(Fri Feb.20) =           7,365.67     100.28 (-) ; the week's range [7366, 7556] ; the difference = 190
(Fri Feb.13)     =        7,850.41    82.35 (-) ; the week's range [7850, 8271] ; the difference = 421
(Fri Feb.6)   =        8,280.59    217.52 (+) ; the week's range [7937, 8281] ; the difference = 344
(Fri Jan.30) =            8,000.86  ;  148.15 (-) ; the week's range [8000, 8375] ; the difference = 375

[note - Nov. 20 bear-market low of 7,552.29 ]

Range
--------
(4wks) =              [7366, 8281]
(5wks) =              [7063, 8281]

Change Range  (100% = origin ; - below 100% ; + above 100%)
-----------------
(Feb.23-Feb.27) = [80, 251]  < 288 (-10%) ; > 190 (+30%)
(Feb.16-Feb.20) = [51, 298]  > 190 (+60%) ; < 421 (-30%)
(Feb.09-Feb.13) = [7, 382]    < 421 (-10%) ; > 344 (+10%)
(Feb.02-Feb.06) = [64, 218]  < 344 (-40%) ; < 375 (-40%)
(Jan.26-Jan.30) = [64, 226]   < 375 (-40%)

(5-wks)              = [7, 382]
(5-wk-avg)        = [53 , 275]

{FFC - Friday to Friday Change}
(Fri Feb.27) =                            302.74 (-)
(Fri Feb.20) =                            317.96 (-)
(Fri Feb13) =                               430.18 (-)
(Fri Feb.6) =                              279.73 (+)
(Fri Jan.30) =                            76.7 (-)

(4 wks) =                                545.11 (-)
(5 wks) =                                847.85 (-)

wkly-avg =                            281.462

Range (4 wks) = [77, 430] ; Difference = 353
Range (5 wks) = [77, 430] ; Difference = 353

{VIX}

(Fri Feb.27)     =                       46.35    ;  the week's range [45, 49] ; the difference = 4
(Fri Feb.20)     =                       49.30    ;  the week's range [47, 49] ; the difference = 2
(Fri Feb.13)     =                       42.93    ;  the week's range [41, 47] ; the difference = 6   
(Fri Feb.6)     =                        43.37    ;  the week's range [43, 46] ; the difference = 3
(wk-avg Feb.27) =                  46.758    ;     1.617 (-)
(wk-avg Feb.20) =                  48.375    ;     6.468 (+)
(wk-avg Feb.13)   =                  44.41    ;     0.374 (-)
(wk-avg Feb.6)   =                  40.978    ;     3.620 (-)
(wk-avg Jan.30)   =                43.014    ;     6.394 (-)

Range (4 wks) = [41, 49] ; Difference = 8
Range (5 wks) = [41, 49] ; Difference = 8

{Oil}
(Fri Feb.27) =                 $44.76 ; the week's range [38, 45] ; the difference = 7
(Fri Feb.20) =                 $38.94 ; the week's range [35, 39] ; the difference = 4
(Fri Feb.13) =                   $37.51 ; the week's range [34, 40] ; the difference = 6
(Fri Feb.6) =                  $40.17 ;  the week's range [40, 41] ; the difference = 1
(Fri Jan.30) =                 $41.68 ;  the week's range [42, 46] ; the difference = 4

Range (4 wks) = [38, 42] ; Difference = 4
Range (5 wks) = [38, 45] ; Difference = 7

{Dollar Index}

(Fri Feb.27) =                88.01 ;  the week's range [87, 88] ; the difference = 1
(Fri Feb.20) =                86.61 ;  the week's range [87, 88] ; the difference = 1
(Fri Feb.13) =                86.04 ;  the week's range [85, 86] ; the difference = 1
(Fri Feb.6) =                  85.29 ;  the week's range [85, 86] ; the difference = 1
(Fri Jan.30) =                86.00

{Baltic Dry Index}

(Feb.27) =                    1986     36 (+) ; the week's range [1950, 2099] ; the difference = 149
(Feb.20) =                    2,099    42 (+) ; the week's range [1846, 2099] ; the difference = 253

Change Range
-----------------
(Feb.23-Feb.27) = [10, 74] < 149 => 50% (upper bound/difference)

{NI225 - Japan}

(Fri Feb.27) =                7,568.42      110.49 (+);  the week's range [7269, 7750] ; the difference = 481
(Fri Feb.20) =                7,416.38      141.27 (-);  the week's range [7416, 7750] ; the difference = 334

Change Range
-----------------
(Feb.23-Feb.27) = [3, 193] < 481 => 40% (upper bound/difference)

{HK:HSI - Hong Kong}

(Fri Feb.27) =                12,811.57      83.37 (-) ;  the week's range [12699, 13456] ; the difference = 1
(Fri Feb.20) =                12,699.17      324.19 (-) ;  the week's range [12699, 13456] ; the difference = 757

{Change Range}

(Feb.23-Feb.27) = [80, 251]  < 481 => 40% (upper bound/difference)

{Last Week}

A new approximate range has been set (again) this week ; [7300, 7700] . This range allows for a movement of either 100 points from the low or 100 points from the high (50% of the 190, rounded to 200, difference).

{This Week}

This week we will try to narrow our range ; Using the weekly average change of 281, we will round up to the nearest century (100) which is 300. Using the lower bound [7063], round down to [7000] and add [300]; then round up to [7100]
and add [300]; we have a new range of (to the nearest century) [6700, 7400]

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