Dow Close (Mon) 8,149.09 679.95 (-)
Oil $48.27
Reference Chart
Oil $48.27
After entering the Thanksgiving holiday, on what looked like a positive note, the pessimistic outlook has returned (in force) to the Dow. So, just what was the Thanksgiving bump? Hindsight is easy! Understanding mechanism mixed with group psychology is not.
Using a historical chart of the Dow (Blue) vs the 10 year treasury bond (Red), we can clearly see the decade long recession of the 70's, we can also see what happened during the Carter Administration. Even Reagan's first term (81-82) recession is there. This trend does not exist now. So have things changed, and the lines have significantly diverged that they will not meet again, or is there much worse to come - and the lines will converge.
Using a historical chart of the Dow (Blue) vs the 10 year treasury bond (Red), we can clearly see the decade long recession of the 70's, we can also see what happened during the Carter Administration. Even Reagan's first term (81-82) recession is there. This trend does not exist now. So have things changed, and the lines have significantly diverged that they will not meet again, or is there much worse to come - and the lines will converge.
Reference Chart
Powered by ScribeFire.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment